May 15, 2007

Box Office Update 5/11-5/13: Spider-Man 3's Web Sags

Spider-Man 3 reigns supreme in its second weekend, despite taking a dive of more than 61%. It had to be expected, especially with the mediocre word of mouth ciculating the internet. Surely it is not a debacle of Batman & Robin proportions, but it was a disappointing follow up to the second entry. Still, it is a film that survives on the spectacle and is perfectly suited to be seen on the big screen, and it does look like that is where people want to see it.

After it's record setting opening weekend, Spider-Man 3 has crossed the $240 million mark. It is the fourth quickest to the double century, trailing Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, Spider-Man 2, and Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith. And considering its trailing of those three films, it seems increasingly unlikely that it will cross the $400 million plateau. Still, it is surely going to get well past the $300 million mark. Whatever negativity you may here with regards to its performance at the box office should be taken with a grain of salt, as this is truly a huge blockbuster, with a world wide tally north of $600 million.

As for the new releases of the week, three of them were able to crack the top ten, although none of them lit any fires uipon their arrival. The leader among them was 28 Weeks Later, a continuation of Danny Boyle's revisionist zombie tale. It did not reach the levels expected, even though I felt that it completely delivered on what I wanted. Following it, in third place, was the Lindsay Lohan dramedy Georgia Rule. This was not a terribly great film, although it does try. Finally, there is the latest outing of Larry the Cable Guy, this time paired with DJ Qualls and Bill Engvall in the military goof Delta Farce.

Among the returning films, Disturbia led the way with a mere 19% drop from last week. This one has to be a complete surprise with how well it has held on. Also doing surprisingly well is Hot Fuzz which clung on to take the number 10 slot, this film is absolutely hilarious and needs to be seen. The biggest drop, outside of the number 1 film, was owned by Next, a rather poor Nicolas Cage high concept vehicle which falls flat in execution. As for last weekend's other new film, Lucky You, it has fallen out of the top ten all the way to number 13, soon to be relegated to complete obscurity.

Next weekend sees only one film opening wide, but it is expected to be huge. Shrek the Third is opening at 4000+ theaters and will easily take the top slot and will likely finish in the area of $100 million.

Three films dropped from the list this week: Blades of Glory (11), Lucky You (13), and Are We Done Yet (14).

This Week

Last WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
11Spider-Man 3$58,166,256$240,236,8282

28 Weeks Later

3NGeorgia Rule$6,773,870$6,773,8701
5NDelta Farce$3,420,645$3,420,6451


74The Invisible$2,315,286$15,659,1223
87Meet the Robinsons$1,802,543$94,296,5107
109Hot Fuzz$1,716,670$18,991,6684

Box Office Predictions Recap
Well, it comes as no surprise that Spider-Man 3 remained at the number 1 spot, but what does come as a surprise is how close I came to guessing its box office gross. Actually, overall I think I did pretty good on both ends this week. I got the top four in place, plus two others, and a pair that were close. Next week will see a new number one when Shrek the Third arrives.

Anyway, here is how I picked the field:


PredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Spider-Man 3$58,166,256$60 million
2228 Weeks Later$9,807,292$11 million
33Georgia Rule$6,773,870$8 million
44Disturbia$4,732,839$4 million



$3.5 million

56Delta Farce$3,420,645$3 million
77The Invisible$2,315,286$2.5 million
128TheEx$1,394,229$2 million
99Next$1,738,056$1.5 million
1310Lucky You$1,195,342$1 million


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