June 20, 2006

Box Office Update for 6/16-6/18: Cars' Lead Shrinks to a Car Length

Cars succeeded in hanging on to the top spot despite a surprisingly strong showing from Jack Black's Nacho Libre. The Pixar film may be failing to outperform its predecessors, it is still drawing the families to the theater. The movie was good, despite its length and simplistic tale, the animation was gorgeous. It will be interesting to see how it fares next weekend when the new Adam Sandler flick joins the fray.

Nacho Libre and the latest entry in the The Fast and the Furious franchise both had strong outings, although the possibility of their having legs is decidedly weaker. I have a feeling the tale of the wrestling priest will fade fast, partly due to the poor advertising which will color expectations. Tokyo Drift has potential to stick around for a little while, it was actually pretty good.

Two other films made their debut this week. First is The Lake House, which came in fourth place. This is a beautiful romantic drama with an unexplained phenomena at its core. The other is the sequel disappointment, Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties, which came in 7th place.

Of the returning films, all of them dropped in the vicinity of 50%. The future just looks worse as more and more new films enter the mix, these will drop further and further down the list.

Four films dropped from the list this week: A Prairie Home Companion (11), Mission: Impossible III (13), Poseidon (14), and RV (16). Next week will probably see 4 drop off as we have the release of 4 potential hits entering the cineplexes.

This Week

Last WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
2NNacho Libre$28,309,599$28,309,5991
3NThe Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift$23,973,840$23,973,8401
4NThe Lake House$13,616,196$13,616,1961
52The Break-Up$9,831,145$92,260,1603
63X-Men: The Last Stand$7,820,253$216,218,8534
7NGarfield: A Tale of Two Kitties$7,288,977$7,288,9771
84The Omen$5,640,849$47,188,0542
95The DaVinci Code$5,266,560$198,767,8115
106Over the Hedge$4,339,015$139,047,4835

Box Office Predictions Recap
I nailed the top 4 and the bottom 3, but mixed up those middle three. Overall, I think I did better than last week. My predictions of gross are still rather gross, but I figure the longer I do it, the better I could potentially get. I seem to be better at guessing the position, at least so far.


PredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Cars$33,731,634$35 million
22Nacho Libre$28,309,599$26 million
33The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift$23,973,840$19 million
44The Lake House$13,616,196$16 million

Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties


$13 million

56The Break-Up$9,831,145$9 million
67X-Men: The Last Stand$7,820,253$6 million
88The Omen$5,640,849$4.5 million
99The DaVinci Code$5,266,560$3 million
1010Over the Hedge$4,339,015$1.5 million

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