January 12, 2010

Box Office Update 1/8-1/10: Avatar Continues its Impressive Run

Seriously? Is it possible that Avatar is still pulling opening weekend type numbers four weekends in? Yes, I guess it is possible. No film has ever pulled this sort of business four weeks deep. No film has ever come close. Ironically, the number two film is none other than another James Cameron film, Titanic. There is a lot of talk going around about the potential for Avatar to top Titanic's titanic domestic take. I am not sure it will, but it will be fun watching it try!

The top three films this week are the same as last week. You see, this week's new releases just could not challenge for the top spot. The 2009 holdovers proved to be just too much for 2010's debut offerings. Still, the box office as a whole seems to be feeding off the strength of Avatar. I am just shocked by the event it has turned into. It is bringing everyone out to the theaters, all demographics, including those who don't often go to the movies.

The first movie of 2010 to chart is Daybreakers. The vampire film had a strong opening frame when compared to your typical January open. On top of that, it actually is a good film. It is the first major post-Twilight vampire movie and it gets more right before the titles than that teen targeted romance. Of course, I think it felt the pressure to show vampires in a slightly more traditional fashion. Well, they came out swinging and delivered a solid horror/science fiction/action film. If you are a genre fan, be sure to catch it.

Sixth place plays host to the new year's second film, Leap Year. It is a mediocre romantic comedy that survives on the performance and chemistry of its two leads, Amy Adams and Matthew Goode. The plot is purely by the numbers and you can predict how it will play out just by watching the commercials. Still, if you like the genre, you could do a lot worse than this.

Rounding out the 2010 debuts is Youth in Revolt, which came in ninth place. I saw the film and it certainly is odd. It is enjoyable, but it is also rather mediocre. I suspect it will fall rather quickly and be forgotten by the mainstream in a short period of time. Better luck next time, Michael Cera.

As for the returning films not in the top three, The Blind Side continues to draw crowds and extend its record. I still have no desire to see it, but I applaud Sandra Bullock on the film's enormous success.

Next week sees new competition arrive, will this be the fall of Avatar? It may be tough. Leading the charge is the post-apocalyptic Denzel Washington film Book of Eli. Jackie Chan returns in the family comedy The Spy Next Door. Finally, Peter Jackson's The Lovely Bones goes wide.

Three movies dropped off the list this week: Invictus (11), Nine (13), and Did You Hear About the Morgans? (15).

This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
22Sherlock Holmes$16,585,327$165,153,0933
33Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel$16,566,489$178,451,1653
54It's Complicated$11,007,875$76,370,5403
6NLeap Year$9,202,815$9,202,8151
75The Blind Side$7,531,467$218,978,3768
86Up in the Air$7,159,294$54,800,6886
9NYouth in Revolt$6,888,334$6,888,3341
107The Princess and the Frog$4,651,156$92,546,7277

Box Office Predictions Recap
Despite being a few weeks out of practice, I think I came out of the gate pretty strong this week. I got the top four slots right before things began to crumble. Fortunately, it is a slight crumble with my biggest placement gaffe being Did You Hear About the Morgans? Frankly, I should have known better than to keep that in the top ten when Up in the Air has been doing steady business. As for the other side of the chart, I surprisingly almost nailed Avatar's take. Hard to believe this is its fourth weekend! On this side my biggest mistakes were overestimating both Sherlock and Alvin.

Here is how the field matched up:



TitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Avatar$50,306,217$51 million
22Sherlock Holmes (2009)$16,585,327$22 million


3Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel$16,566,489$20 million
44Daybreakers$15,146,692$16 million
65Leap Year (2010)$9,202,815

$12 million

56It's Complicated$11,007,875$11 million
77The Blind Side$7,531,467$8.5 million
108The Princess and the Frog$4,651,156$7 million
99Youth in Revolt$6,888,334$5.5 million
1510Did You Hear About the Morgans?$1,546,172$3.5 million

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