June 30, 2009

Box Office Update 6/26-6/28: Transformers - Revenge of the Fallen Surprises All to Take Top Spot

Of course that headline is a little bit of a joke, as you will remember that last week I told you what would take the top spot. I accurately predicted that Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen would be the top movie. Guess what? I was right. I know, it was something of a gimme to pick the highly anticipated sequel to take the weekend, but we have had upsets before. Now that's funny, I am pretty sure that Michael Bay and his team were not terribly worried about My Sister's Keeper suddenly rising up and stealing its thunder; of course, that would have been hilariously awesome. Anyway, I added my dollars to the coffer by going to see the robot flick, sat in the theater with my mouth agape, and left the theater upon conclusion in something of a stupor. The movie is shockingly stupid in its narrative and amazing in its technical execution. Go for the effects, that is about all it is worth.

Coming in second place this week is last week's top earner, The Proposal. The Sandra Bullock/Ryan Reynolds romantic comedy. I am vaguely interested in this one but have not yet had the opportunity. I think this combination holds the potential to make a rather likable pairing as they both have considerable charisma on screen. It showed decent legs dropping just over 44% from last week. I suspect I will get to see this next week sometime.

Third and fourth place films are a couple of the year's stronger performers. First up is The Hangover, the R-rated comedy that seemingly came out of nowhere and provides some of the summers biggest laughs. Then there is Up, which is set to become only the second Pixar film to hit the $300 million mark. Both films are first rate and well worth spending some time in the theater with.

My Sister's Keeper makes its debut in fifth place. Actually, this opened stronger than I was expecting. It did not strike me as a film that would hit nationwide. I am glad to see I was mistaken as it looks like a quality film. It stars Cameron Diaz, Jason Patric, and Abigail Breslin in a drama that involves cancer, creating what is essentially a backup child, and a lawsuit against your parents. Pretty heady stuff, I hope it is handled intelligently. This is another one I will likely catch up with sometime next week.

Year One took a dive here in its third weekend. This is one that just failed to catch on. I cannot say I am surprised, I feel like I am one of only handful of people to see something, anything, in it. Hopefully Jack Black and Michael Cera can bounce back as I like both of them.

The only other notable film in the bottom half is Away We Go, the new Sam Mendes film whose release widened this past weekend. The relationship comedy is a well acted movie that is touching and is definitely worth tracking down. The only thing that bothered me was the use of indie rock music, just not my seen.

Next weekend will see Michael Mann's new film, Public Enemies, arrive with the star power of Johnny Depp and Christian Bale (in what will hopefully be a bounce back from his lackluster showing in Terminator: Salvation). Also arriving is the movie most likely to win the weekend, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs. I cannot say I am excited for it, but it will surely bring the families.

Three movies dropped off the top ten this week: Land of the Lost (11), Terminator: Salvation (12), and Imagine That (14).

This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
1NTransformers: Revenge of the Fallen$108,966,307$200,077,2551
21The Proposal$18,578,541$69,162,4712
32The Hangover$17,022,166$183,054,2674
5NMy Sister's Keeper$12,442,212$12,442,2121
64Year One$6,022,444$32,529,5602
75The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3$5,451,107$53,456,8273
87Star Trek$3,711,968$246,331,1828
96Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian$3,643,522$163,391,1926
1013Away We Go$1,709,313$4,088,3904

Box Office Predictions Recap
Amazing, the number one film took in about the same as the next nine films combined! This week proved to be a pretty good one for me. I only suffered a couple of minor gaffes, with the biggest being my assumption that the Night at the Museum sequel would do stronger this week, but it is falling pretty quick now, I guess people are finally tiring of it. As for this week's juggernaut? I can see it falling with slightly greater than average slips each week, supported by a variety of word of mouth opinions covering the love it to the forget it range.

Here is how the field matched up:

ActualPredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen$108,966,307$115 million
22The Proposal$18,578,541$19 million


3The Hangover$17,022,166$18 million
44Up$13,061,737$15 million
55My Sister's Keeper$12,442,212

$10 million

66Year One$6,022,444$8 million
77The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3$5,451,107$7 million
98Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian$3,643,522$6 million
89Star Trek$3,711,968$4 million
1110Land of the Lost$1,195,685$2 million


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