May 16, 2008

New Movies and Box Office Predictions: The Chronicles of Narnia - Prince Caspian

Two weeks ago Iron Man lit up the box office and got the summer season off to a hot start. It is now heading into it's third weekend, after two in the top spot, and is going to surpass the $200 million mark this weekend. The film is a hit with critics and fans alike and should have a good run in the top ten. Last weekend The Wachowski's made their directorial return with Speed Racer, which received a very lukewarm response (although I liked it very much). It failed to live up to expectations and will likely slip down the charts quickly. This weekend should prove to be a rebound week for new releases, despite there being only one new title on the slate. However, it has been tracking well, has a built in audience, and is expected to gross in the $70-80 million range. We shall see.

The Chronicles of Narnia - Prince Caspian. (2008, 140 minutes, PG, fantasy, trailer) Back in 2005, the first big screen version of The Chronicles of Narnia - The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe arrived in theaters the world over. It proved to be a big hit, taking in more than $290 million in the US alone, thus securing that at least one more entry in the seven book series would be made. It has taken two and a half years, but it is hear, and I have to say that judging by the trailer, this looks like a better movie. I enjoyed the first film, but cannot say it blew me away. Anyway, this film picks up one year in real time for the central siblings, and 1300 years for Narnia. This time around, the story appears to contain more action as the kids must help Prince Caspian, driven into hiding by his uncle Miraz, return to the thrown and find Aslan, with some new help along the way.

Also opening this week, but not near me:
  • Reprise
  • Sangre De Mi Sangre

Box Office Predictions
Can Iron Man make it three in a row? The answer is easy, while it may deserve it, it will fall at the feet of Prince Caspian. The Narnia sequel is sure to be a hit, unlike last week's "sure to be a hit" Speed Racer, this will actually deliver at the box office. Now, whether or not I like it is a completely different issue. As for the rest? Iron Man will be a strong number two, while Speed will begin it's slide down the chart. The rest is up in the air and will likely mirror last week's finish, just shifted down one.

Here is how I think the top ten field will play out:

RankTitleBox Office
1The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian$78 million
2Iron Man$28 million
3What Happens in Vegas$13 million
4Speed Racer$9 million
5Made of Honor$5 million
6Baby Mama$4 million
7Forgetting Sarah Marshall$2.5 million
8Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay$2 million
9The Forbidden Kingdom$1.25 million
10Nim's Island$1 million


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