February 8, 2008

New Movies and Box Office Predictions: Fool's Gold, Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show, Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins

2008 is off to a big start at the box office. The dollars just keep rolling in at a rate well over the past few years. Will the streak continue? I have to guess that the box office will falter a bit sooner rather than later. Anyway, this weekend will attempt to keep the streak going with the release of three movies nationwide. Two of them will have broad appeal, which will help the chances for continued box office dominance. However, none of the new films strike me as terribly exciting. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Fool's Gold. (2008, 110 minutes, PG-13, romantic comedy, trailer) When Kate Hudson and Matthew McConaughy appear on the big screen, you know Valentine's Day is right around the corner! This time out, Matthew is a treasure hunter and Kate is his soon to be ex-wife. The two become re-entangled as the search for a new treasure begins. I cannot say this looks like anything special. In fact, it looks surprisingly generic. I am reminded of Into the Blue with comedy tossed in. Still, I expect it to do well, both have a quite likable charisma onscreen. Andy Tennant directs, this is his first feature since his 2005 hit Hitch.

Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show. (2008, 110 minutes, R, comedy, trailer) This looks like it could be fun, kind of like a frat boy road trip. Vaughn gathers a bunch of stand up comedians together and, together, head off on a road trip of the south west spreading stand up, improv, and sketch comedy and music to the masses. The featured players include Ahmed Ahmed, John Caparulo, Bret Ernst and Sebastian Maniscalco.

Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins. (2008, 114 minutes, PG-13, comedy, trailer) Martin Lawrence just isn't my cup of tea. Yes, I did like him in the Bad Boys movies, but outside of that I don't particularly care for his brand of comedy. So, it is probably a good guess that I will be skipping this one. In it, Lawrence stars as the title character, a childhood outcast who has grown up to be a television talk show host (along the lines of Dr. Phil). However, the comedy starts when he returns home for a family gathering. Lawrence's co-stars include James Earl Jones, Cedric the Entertainer, Mike Epps, Mo'Nique and Louis CK. Malcolm D. Lee writes and directs.

Also opening this week, but not near me:
  • The Band's Visit
  • The Hottie & The Nottie
  • How to Rob a Bank
  • In Bruges
  • Ugly Me

Box Office Predictions
Last week I thought I was special, predicting the Hannah Montana flick to be in the top ten. Seeing's its unpredicted success, an subsequent extending of its run, I believe it is likely to see it's success continue. I never realized that the character was quite so popular. Anyway, I don't think it will top a second weekend, the romcom Fool's Gold will have that honor, and Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins should not be written off quite yet. I do suspect that The Eye will have a drop off in the area of 50%.

Here is how I think the top ten field will play out:

RankTitleBox Office
1Fool's Gold$21 million
2Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus$18 million
3Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins$14 million
4The Eye$6.5 million
527 Dresses$5.5 million
6Juno$4.5 million
7Rambo$4 million
8Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show$3.5 million
9The Bucket List$3 million
10Meet the Spartans$3 million


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