February 26, 2008

Box Office Update 2/22-2/24: Vantage Point's Trailer Carpet Bomb Pays Off

Well, the marketing ploy paid off, at least in the short term. Next week will tell us if Vantage Point has what it takes to continue pulling audiences for awhile. What am I talking about? Like the title says, the carpet bombing of the trailer as perpetrated by Sony Pictures Entertainment. I am not sure quite how they did it, but the trailer for this action/thriller seemed to be attached to every movie that hit the theaters. I am quite sure that you even saw it with the recent Veggie-Tales movie. The trailer was playing as far back as late last summer. Anyway, the constant pummeling of the release on our heads apparently worked and it was the number one movie this weekend. Yes, I was one of those who laid out the cash for it. Was it worth it? Sort of. It definitely delivered thrills, but as far as being a complete film it was somewhat lacking.

There was only one other new release to reach the top ten this week, and it was all the way down at number nine. It is Michele Gondry's latest creation, Be Kind, Rewind, it is a heartfelt comedy that really works. It may not be quite as food as it could be, but it is far from bad. It stars Mos Def and Jack Black play best friends who have to make their own versions of popular films when a magnetized Black erases all the tapes in the shop Def works at. It is fun, smile inducing and really touches the heart. I suggest you give it a go.

As for the returning films? The Spiderwick Chronicles proved to have a strong hold, retaining its second place position and slipping a mere 30%. It deserves it, the film is better than expected. As for last week's top film, it dropped to third with a near 60% drop. Jumper is suffering from poor word of mouth and will likely drop pretty quick over the next two weeks.

Most of the rest of the returning titles had holds in the 50% range, which seems to be the norm from week to week. However, there was one returning film that defies the odds, a small independent film (and now an Oscar winner) that continues to capture imaginations and put people in the seats. Juno slipped less than 10% and has remained in the top ten for nearly its entire 12 week run, so far. It is a great little film, and if you have not yet seen it, do so.

There was one other notable title in the top ten this week, marking its third trip to the top ten, There Will Be Blood (winner of two Oscars). Its gross slipped just 11% from last week as it climbed to spots to come in at number ten. This is one that is going to be remembered for a long time, make sure you see it if you haven't already.

Next week will see new competition from the oddly titled The Other Boleyn Girl featuring the pairing of Natalie Portman and Scarlet Johansson, the fantasy drama I know little about in Penelope, and the surefire number one film, the Will Ferrell sports comedy Semi-Pro.

Three movies dropped off the top ten this week: The Bucket List (11), 27 Dresses (15), and Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Tour (16).

This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
1NVantage Point$22,874,936$22,874,9361
22The Spiderwick Chronicles$13,100,192$44,076,0432
43Step Up 2: The Streets$9,605,703$41,238,0932
54Fool's Gold$6,554,284$52,717,4133
65Definitely, Maybe$5,217,775$21,814,8052
76Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins$4,158,700$35,667,1153
9NBe Kind, Rewind$4,050,655$4,050,6551
1012There Will Be Blood$2,687,229$35,112,5579

Box Office Predictions Recap
A lot of overestimations this week, and a lot of poor placements. Vantage Point was the only sure thing. As for the rest? Well, with the returning films it was easy to tell the general area they were going to land in, but what they would end up with was the tricky part. For example, we all knew that Jumper was going to drop north of 50%, but who would have predicted the mere 30% drop for The Spiderwick Chronicles to retain it's number two slot? As for the new releases, I am surprised to see neither Witless Protection nor Charlie Bartlett in the top ten. I thought the former would be shoe-in for the low end, although I am glad it didn't make it. As for Bartlett, I thought the theater count would be able to push it to the top ten, hopefully word of mouth will help it as it is actually pretty good and it is most likely hurt by the R rating, although I wouldn't want anything cut.

Here is how the field matched up:

ActualPredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Vantage Point$22,874,936$22 million
32Jumper$12,708,768$16 million
23The Spiderwick Chronicles$13,100,192$12 million
44Step Up 2: The Streets$9,605,703$11 million

Definitely, Maybe

$5,217,775$8.5 million
56Fool's Gold$6,554,284$7 million
97Be Kind, Rewind$4,050,655$5.5 million
148Charlie Bartlett$1,836,256$4.5 million
79Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins$4,158,700$4 million
1310Witless Protection$2,116,692$4 million


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