February 19, 2008

Box Office Update 2/15-2/17: Jumper Overtakes the Fool's

Jumper succeeded in jumping right to the head of the class in its first weekend out, handily topping all of the new and returning competition. It successfully fended off the advances of more "date-friendly" fare en route to a healthy $27.3 million opening weekend. Whether or not that will hold up next week is yet to be seen. Considering how non-plussed I was exiting the theater, I will be hard pressed to believe it will do all that well in week two. The movie, while not without its charms, is a scatter shot exercise in teen-centric action/sci-fi. It seemed to want to build up this epic battle with expansive internal continuity. The problem is that they failed to let the writers in on that idea and the end result was not all that successful. Perhaps if a sequel is green lit we will see what was supposed to happen here.

Following Jumper are a couple more new releases this weekend. First is The Spiderwick Chronicles, a child/young teen targeted fantasy based on a popular series of novels (aren't they all?). It seems to have modest aspirations, yet provides a very entertaining film that does not shy away from its darker moments, while also not dwelling on them. It stars Freddie Highmore in a dual role and is directed by Mark Waters. It's opening was just a bit stronger than Step Up 2, which bodes well, that and the fact that it is actually a good movie. I suspect this will fall quicker than the dancing movie, but I hope that it does well if for no other reason than it is a quality film.

The number three film is Step Up 2: The Streets, coming with a potent opening frame and proving that the dance genre has some good life in it (despite the lackluster showing of How She Move). It opened strong with near $19 million. I saw the film and can attest to the brainless fun it provides and can understand the popularity of this type of film despite not being their biggest proponent. I suspect that this will hold well over the next couple of weeks.

There is one other new release on the top ten this week, Definitely, Maybe lands at number five. I actually expected a stronger opening from the romantic comedy, especially considering we just passed Valentine's Day. I was wrong in thinking that, obviously. However, that does not change the fact that it is a very good romance, one that made this softy inexplicably get a little dusty in the theater. It provides the maturation of Van Wilder into a more bankable star, time will tell if this proves to be a stepping stone to the A list.

Among the returning films, Juno and The Bucket List are continuing to show some strong legs as they both suffered, once again, small percentage drops over their take from last year. Seeing Juno succeed the way it has is a wonderful thing to witness. It is an excellent film and deserves all of the attention and accolades that it has received.

Next week will see new competition from Be Kind, Rewind, Charlie Bartlett, Witless Protection, and the surefire number one film Vantage Point. If for no other reason than the carpet bombing of theaters and televisions across the country with its trailers and commercials. Sunday will also bring competition from the Oscar telecast.

Four movies dropped off the top ten this week: The Eye (11), There Will Be Blood (12), Rambo (13), and Meet the Spartans (16).

This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
2NThe Spiderwick Chronicles$19,004,058$21,379,9381
3NStep Up 2: The Streets$18,908,826$25,509,2861
41Fool's Gold$12,909,039$41,863,7262
5NDefinitely, Maybe$9,764,270$12,883,4751
62Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins$8,497,715$28,738,6052
87The Bucket List$3,991,239$80,970,9618
93Hannah Montana$3,263,192$58,390,7543
10627 Dresses$3,200,024$69,961,8955

Box Office Predictions Recap
Surprisingly strong prediction week. Of course, these are only predictions on both ends of the spectrum, as final numbers aren't out yet, so there is still the possibility that I could be further off than meets the eye. This week features five correct placements. If the predicted grosses go along with the figures, even they would be pretty close to the actuals. I am surprised at just how close I got this week to the three day predictions. I guess we'll have to wait and see if the trend continues next week.

Here is how the field matched up:

ActualPredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Jumper$27,354,808$25 million
52Definitely, Maybe$9,764,270$18 million
23The Spiderwick Chronicles$19,004,058$16 million
44Fool's Gold$12,909,039$14 million

Step Up 2: The Streets

$18,908,826$12 million
66Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins$8,497,715$9 million
77Juno$4,612,741$4.5 million
10827 Dresses$3,200,024$4 million
99Hannah Montana$3,263,192$4 million
810The Bucket List$3,991,239$3.5 million


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