December 7, 2007

New Movies and Box Office Predictions: The Golden Compass, Noelle

Let the cineplex rush begin. While the Fall brings many Oscar buzz-worthy titles, it is also the second time of year that studios trot out big budget films with bug budget expectations. The holiday season is a time that brings families together, and what better way to have fun as a family? Go to the movies of course! This week brings up a lone title challenging the incumbents for your money. Will you cave and give them what they want? I have a feeling I will...

The Golden Compass. (2007, 114 minutes, PG-13, fantasy, trailer) New Line Cinema is banking on this $150 million dollar fantasy to be a hit. Not only so they can make back their investment, but so they can move forward with the two planned sequels (based on the other two books in the trilogy). On the surface, this would seem to be an easy task, considering the cast led by the likes of Nicole Kidman, Daniel Craig, Sam Elliot, and Eva Green combined with the lavish fantasy setting. It would seem to be a slam dunk. However, the film has raised the ire of Catholic and groups who believe kids will give up on God, based on the novel's author's open atheism. It is also receiving criticism from novels of the book for straying from the source. I think the trailers look good and, atheist base or not, I think this good be a fun adventure. Quite frankly, I cannot see a movie moving me to the point of abandoning my beliefs.

Noelle. (2007, 90 minutes, PG, drama, trailer) Prior to seeing discovering this on thWHe list of releases for my local theater this week, I had never heard of Noelle. I believe I may give it a shot, but suspect that it may run a little too sentimental for my tastes. It is the story of Father Jonathan Keene (David Wall, who also writes and directs), a priest whose task it is to close down struggling parishes. He arrives in a small fishing village to do just that, but the townsfolk have other designs as their lives become entangled with the visiting priest.

With the release of The Golden Compass, the build to Christmas is officially on. From now through the holiday our cineplexes will be flooded with a string of big budgeted would-be box office killers and fare targeted at separating families from large amounts of cash. Next week will bring I Am Legend, which is expected to be the hit of the season. Joining it will be the live action, Jason Lee starring Alvin and the Chipmunks and The Perfect Holiday starring Gabrielle Union, Morris Chestnut, and Queen Latifah. Other expected box office smashers include Charlie Wilson's War, National Treasure 2: Book of Secrets, and Sweeney Todd.

Also opening this week, but not near me:
  • The Amateurs
  • Atonement
  • Dirty Laundry
  • Grace is Gone
  • Juno
  • Looking for Cheyenne
  • Tony 'n' Tina's Wedding
  • The Walker

Box Office Predictions
With only one new release going wide, I wonder what will come out on top? If I get nothing else right, I will nail the number one film. That, of course, will be The Golden Compass. The only question is just how much it will manage to take in, as it will face stiff competition from Will Smith next week. The rest of the top ten will be many films jockeying for position, although I believe that Enchanted will be a lock for second place.

Here is how I think the top ten field will play out:

RankTitleBox Office
1The Golden Compass$39 million
2Enchanted$11 million
3Beowulf$5 million
4This Christmas$4.5 million
5Hitman$4 million
6Fred Claus$4 million
7Awake$3.5 million
8August Rush$3 million
9No Country for Old Men$3 million
10Bee Movie$2.5 million

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