October 2, 2007

Box Office Update 9/28-9/30: The Game Plan Outscores The Kingdom

Surprising analysts, including myself as an outsider looking in,Disney's family comedy The Game Plan topped the politically charged action/thriller The Kingdom for box office supremacy. Although I guess I really shouldn't be all that surprised. Looking across the top ten, and even beyond, there really is not all that much competition for the family audience. Mr. Bean's Holiday is slipping (down to 19th), but it wasn't that good at all. We also have Sydney White, slipping a bit in its second weekend, although that is more targeted at the tween audience rather than the family. There isn't really anything other than those to compete with The Game Plan for that demographic. From past experience, if a halfway decent family film comes out, it is almost assured of having a good run at the box office.

I did have the opportunity to catch The Game Plan over the weekend. I found it to be a funny, smile-inducing, inoffensive comedy that was very easy to enjoy. Maddison Pettis, who co-stars as the young girl, is cute and does a very good job without becoming annoying. Also, Dwayne Johnson shows, once again why he should be a movie star. I suspect that this will have decent legs, as there is no real competition for awhile in the family realm. That is, aside from it actually being an entertaining movie.

Coming in second place this week is the movie that many were expecting to top the box office, The Kingdom. I guess the less than expected take could be blamed on audiences not wanting to go see a movie set in the Middle East, what with all we can see each night on the news. Still, this was an exciting movie that straddled the line between the serious and the crowd pleasing. In particular, the final big action piece was excellent. It is worth checking out.

There was one other film making its debut on the top ten list. Across the Universe, in the third week of its limited release made it to number ten. It does not appear, though, that the studio believes it can succeed on a large scale. My opinion is that they should give it a shot. I saw it and thought that it was absolutely wonderful, capturing a lively exuberance that has more going on than just the interpretation of Beatles songs.

Of the remaining films, Resident Evil: Extinction fell the hardest. It was the number one film last week, but it seems that its success was very front loaded as it slipped more than 65% this weekend. On the other hand, 3:10 to Yuma is doing a pretty well at hanging onto its audience, and rightly it should. It dropped just 32% this week, and hopefully it will continue to do well.

Next weekend will see new competition coming from the Jennifer Lopez produced music/drama Feel the Noise, the re-teaming of Ben Stiller and the Farrelly Brothers in The Heartbreak Kid, and the fantasy adaptation The Seeker: The Dark is Rising. Also, The Jane Austen Book Club will be expanding into a number of new markets.

Three movies dropped off the top ten this week: The Bourne Ultimatum (12), Superbad (13), and Dragon Wars (17).
This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
1NThe Game Plan$22,950,971$22,950,9711
2NThe Kingdom$17,135,055$17,135,0551
31Resident Evil: Extinction$8,036,405$36,826,4112
42Good Luck Chuck$6,244,066$23,513,1422
543:10 to Yuma$4,208,366$43,951,9104
63The Brave One$3,719,285$30,834,7533
77Mr. Woodcock$2,947,402$19,578,5943
85Eastern Promises$2,938,847$11,281,4923
96Sydney White$2,569,515$8,449,3952
1013Across the Universe$2,016,224$5,476,4333

Box Office Predictions Recap
Well, swap my top two picks, gross prediction included, and I would have been right. I was able to get a few sporadic titles placed correctly, while I wildly overestimated Feast of Love. Then again, I should have known better as the advertising hasn't really been all that strong for it, at least not that I have seen. It probably would have worked better as a February release, banking on Valentine's Day. Most of my gross predictions were in the general ballpark, except for Resident Evil Extinction, which fell considerably harder than I thought it would. A big drop was to be expected, but I thought it would have done a bit better than it did.

Anyway, here is how I picked the field:

ActualPredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
21The Kingdom$17,135,055$21 million
12The Game Plan$22,950,971$17 million
33Resident Evil: Extinction$8,036,405$12 million
124Feast of Love$1,707,967$8.5 million

Good Luck Chuck

$6,244,066$7 million
66The Brave One$3,719,285$4 million
573:10 to Yuma$4,208,366$3.5 million
88Eastern Promises$2,938,847$3 million
99Sydney White$2,569,515$2.5 million
710Mr. Woodcock$2,947,402$2 million


Post a Comment