October 30, 2007

Box Office Update 10/26-10/28: Saw IV Draws Box Office Blood (it's green)

As if there was any question, Saw IV dominated the weekend. It took the top spot by margin near $20 million. Whether or not it is a film deserving of that top spot is up to each and every one of you with all of the differing schools of thought with regards to torture based horror films. I saw the the movie and while it definitely caters to its audience, I do not feel it is the best it could be. I guess it is a good thing that box office is often not a good judge of quality.

There was only one other new film being released this week. Dan in Real Life took a distant second behind the fourth Saw outing. This is definitely targeted at a different audience. It is a much more low key film that focuses on the family and finding the balance between family and self. It is a wonderful, funny film that is a definite comeback of sorts for Steve Carell, whose last outing was the severely lacking Evan Almighty.

Among the returning films, The Game Plan and Michael Clayton continue to impress with their small week to week drops. The Game Plan is doing particularly well, dropping a mere 25% in its fifth weekend. The family comedy is a delight for every member of the family and looks to finish somewhere north of the $90 million range. Michael Clayton, on the other hand, has more modest aspirations of financial success (although all filmmakers would like their creation to be a success). It dropped just 26% from last week and is drawing love from all quarters. I would not be surprised to see this remembered come Awards season.

Most of the returning films had strong holds this weekend. Despite this, there is always going to be a one movie that takes it on the chin. This week that honor goes to last week's number one, 30 Days of Night. It slipped 57% as it fell to third place. It is a movie that is getting very mixed reviews, or which I fell somewhere in the middle. Reviews will hurt any film, but horror films tend to be very front loaded, so they need to make most of their box office gross within the first couple of weekends before potential bad word gets out.

Next week will see competition from the highly anticipated American Gangster starring Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe, Jerry Seinfeld's return to the public eye with the animated Bee Movie, and the family film Martian Child with John Cusack.

Two movies dropped off the top ten this week: Rendition (11) and The Heartbreak Kid (12).
This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
1NSaw IV$31,756,764$31,756,7641
2NDan in Real Life$11,809,445$11,809,4451
3130 Days of Night$6,862,764$27,480,9072
43The Game Plan$6,129,720$76,939,1675
52Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married?$5,643,899$47,204,2603
64Michael Clayton$4,924,374$28,668,1684
76Gone Baby Gone$3,817,451$11,226,9752
88Tim Burton's Nightmare Before Christmas 3-D$3,446,012$10,100,4352
97We Own the Night$3,395,012$25,065,0183
105The Comebacks$3,371,708$9,925,2682

Box Office Predictions Recap
Not too bad this week. Of course, the top two were pretty easy to guess. Still, I was rather hit or miss throughout, particularly when it comes to my gross predictions (funny, works on multiple levels). For the second straight week I underestimated the draw of the Nightmare Before Christmas re-issue, which placed eighth for the second straight week of its limited run. I think I am having a hard time getting past the limited release in terms of theater count, thinking that it must get all its bang in the first week. I actually hope this becomes an annual thing, while I did not attend this year, I would like to again.

Anyway, here is how I picked the field:

ActualPredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Saw IV$31,756,764$29 million
22Dan in Real Life$11,809,445$14.5 million
53Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married?$5,643,899$7.5 million
343o Days of Night$6,862,764$6.5 million

The Game Plan

$6,129,720$5 million
66Michael Clayton$4,924,374$3.5 million
107The Comebacks$3,371,708$3 million
78Gone Baby Gone$3,817,451$2.5 million
99We Own the Night$3,395,012$2 million
1110Rendition$2,372,487$2 million


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