June 5, 2007

Box Office Update 6/1-6/3: Pirates Gets Knocked Up

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End keeps up the trend of monster openings with second weekend drops of over 60%. May was a huge month, and was absolutely draining in terms of hype and the rapidity that these films came out. I cannot recall the last time that a month contained three such highly touted films. While the studios had a lot riding on them, they were placed so closely together and were so front loaded that the big drops had to be expected. Also, no matter how much Hollywood would like you to believe that these quick drops and lower than expected returns are a disappointment, don't kid yourself, these movies are raking it in, and when you consider overseas receipts and eventual DVD sales, somebody is making a lot of bank.

So, know that the big three are out, and we may have a bit more of an objective view on things, how do you feel the May's big three turned out? For me, I think Spider-Man was an entertaining spectacle, although it pales in comparison to the first two. I was very disappointed, but still entertained. In it's third weekend, it fell to fifth, and may well end up the top grosser of the big three. Then came Shrek the Third, now this had a number of laugh out loud moments, but the story really fell flat. There were long segments that dragged, and I feel as if the franchise has lost its way, stepping away from the fractured fairy tale roots. Still, the kids seem to like it, and it is sure to end up with a tally north of $300 million. Finally, there is Pirates, the most successful in my opinion, but perhaps released to close to the second outing.

Three new movies entered the top ten list this week. Leading the charge is Knocked Up, one of the best movies of the year. It surpassed what I was expecting it to do, and having added my few to the bottomline, I am glad to say that I am happy it did. This was a raunch with heart romantic comedy that fires on all cylinders and flat out delivers the goods. Next up is the new Kevin Costner outing Mr. Brooks. Now this is a movie that I cannot call good, but still entertained me to no end. It opened up with a decent $10 million for fourth place. Lastly, there is Gracie, the inspirational sports coming of age drama based partially on the life of Elisabeth Shue, it came in seventh place.

As for the returning films, Waitress continues to impress and has a strong hold, finishing sixth. At the other end of he scale is Bug, a movie I loved (though I seem to be in a drastic minority), slipping 60%, a big chunk of its already low take.

Next week is expected to be dominated by three new releases: Ocean's 13, Hostel Part II, and Surf's Up.

Three movies dropped off the top ten this week, last week's top ten surprise return Wild Hogs (11), Georgia Rule (12), and Fracture (13).
This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
11Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End$44,206,660$217,545,7282

Knocked Up

32Shrek the Third$28,020,991$255,927,7833
4NMr. Brooks$10,017,067$10,017,0671
53Spider-Man 3$7,578,055$318,342,1105


9628 Weeks Later$1,214,942$26,591,7044

Box Office Predictions Recap
Well, another week down, and another one where I did pretty decent in my predictions. My worst guesstimate was with Gracie and 28 Weeks Later, which I was off by 2 each, essentially flipping each others positions. I was also pretty close on all of the money bets, with Pirates being my one big mistake. I figured that it would have been a little bit stronger in its second weekend, but it is not to be. I am happy that Knocked Up outdid my estimation, as it really is a fantastic movie.

Anyway, here is how I picked the field:

ActualPredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End$44,206,660$55 million
32Shrek the Third$28,020,991$33 million
23Knocked Up$30,690,990$25 million
44Mr. Brooks$10,017,067$15 million

Spider-Man 3

$7,578,055$8 million
66Waitress$2,012,857$2.5 million
9728 Weeks Later$1,214,942$2 million
88Bug$1,286,397$2 million
79Gracie$1,355,904$1.5 million
1010Disturbia$1,112,533$1 million


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