May 2, 2008

New Movies and Box Office Predictions: Iron Man, Made of Honor

Are you ready? Are you ready for the dawn of the 2008 blockbuster season? Well, it is here whether you want it to be or not. This means that if you, like me, are addicted to movies and like to see some of the whiz! bang! on the big screen, this is the biggest money sucking season of the cinematic year. Fortunately, this season looks to have some very worthy titles on the horizon. The season gets off to a hopefully roaring start with what looks to be a blast of a comic book adaptation. Here's to hoping it is a winner.

Iron Man. (2008, 126 minutes, PG-13, sci-fi/action, trailer) Welcome to the summer movie season! I know that the actual start of summer is still a way off, but each year Hollywood ushers in the big money season with the first big budget/high expectation laden film, in this case it is Iron Man. The film comes with a reported budget that lies north of $150 million and an expected gross that is surely north of $250 million. It will be interesting to see where it ends up. Money issues aside, the ultimate quality of the film will be the ultimate judge on the film's place in comic book history. Early word is positive, Rotten Tomatoes is at 95%, Metacritic is at 79, and IMDB is at 8.3. I eagerly anticipate seeing this genre outing of the alcoholic superhero with the metal suit. The cast looks good, led by Robert Downey Jr, and including Terrence Howard, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Jeff Bridges. John Favreau is at the helm with a script by Mark Fergus & Hawk Ostby (who were behind the brilliant Children of Men adaptation) and Art Marcum & Matt Holloway.

Made of Honor. (2008, 101 minutes, PG-13, romantic comedy, trailer) This strikes me as considerably less intriguing, although I suspect that it will prove to be potent counter-programming for those unwilling to sit through Iron Man or are forced to choose upon discovering Iron Man is sold out. Made of Honor does not look particularly good, but it does have the likable pair of Patrick Dempsey (following the success of Enchanted, not to mention Grey's Anatomy) and Michelle Monaghan (coming off of the disappointing Heartbreak Kid). Dempsey plays the poor guy who waited too long to make his move, comes up a bit short and winds up as the maid of honor. It is a highly suspect possibility, but will hopefully prove to be a mildly entertaining big screen diversion.

Also opening this week, but not near me:
  • Fugitive Pieces
  • Mister Lonely
  • Redbelt
  • Son of Rambow

Box Office Predictions
Is there any doubt that Iron Man will top the box? No, didn't think so. The only question is just how high it will go. I have seen predictions that go to over $100 million, which I believe is highly wishful thinking. I am expecting to top out in the $85 million range, definitely a chunk of change and a good start towards a good run. Everyone else will just fall by the wayside, although they should get enough fall off from the big dog to see moderate drop offs this week.

Here is how I think the top ten field will play out:

RankTitleBox Office
1Iron Man$85 million
2Made of Honor$18 million
3Baby Mama$9 million
4Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay$7.5 million
5Forgetting Sarah Marshall$7 million
6Forbidden Kingdom$6 million
7Nim's Island$3.5 million
821$3 million
9Prom Night$2.5 million
1088 Minutes$2 million


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