February 12, 2008

Box Office Update 2/8-2/10: Fool's Gold Plays a Trick on the Audience

Well, I was one of those who went into Fool's Gold hoping for a fun and frothy romantic adventure with a pair of mediocre performers who both have considerable charm and charisma. Sadly, I came out feeling like the rug had been pulled out from under all of us, as the movie failed to deliver anything that resembled true entertainment. It was not a complete loss, but it certainly couldn't be confused with a good movie. Anyway, the movie opened strongly and will likely have decent legs heading into Valentine's Day.

Following up in second place is the other new wide release for the weekend. Martin Lawrence's Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins opened with nearly $17 million. I did not see this one, so I cannot make any comment on the quality of the film.

There was one other film entering substantial (not truly wide) release this weekend, Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show: 30 Days & 30 Nights, Hollywood to the Heartland. Do you think they could have crammed a couple more words in there? Anyway, I saw it and found it to be a completely entertaining road trip style documentary on the comedy tour. It just failed to ignite anything at the box office and will likely land on DVD in pretty short order.

Among the returning films, the Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus concert film dropped a whopping 66%, but it still had the best per theater average of any top ten film. I guess it pays to be a mega-popular ticket in the tween set and have your screen count limited. I wonder if it will be expanded to another weekend?

Taking a look at the other returning films, I cannot help but smile at the success that Juno is enjoying. The little film that could really can, it seems. Each week it sees it's box office take drop by very small percentages as its overall gross continues to grow. It has now been out for 10 weeks and it has been in the top ten for eight of those weeks. Not to mention, each of the past three weeks has seen it climb a step closer to the top. Now, I cannot see this going on indefinitely, but it certainly is enjoyable watching it.

Another film enjoying considerable success is The Bucket List. It may not be putting up gaudy numbers, but it is having strong word of mouth support small gross drops. This week found it holding steady in eighth place. Now I am not particularly a fan of the film, but can definitely recognize its appeal.

There is one last film enjoying some success, albeit on a smaller scale. Paul Thomas Anderson's There Will Be Blood is holding steady in tenth place. The turn of the century oil epic is bringing in smaller overall numbers, but it is also suffering very small box office drops, smaller even than Juno. Like Juno, this is a movie that is well worth seeing, if for different reasons. It is epic in scope and personal in nature and is centered with a jaw dropping performance from Daniel Day-Lewis.

Next weekend will see new competition hitting four demos with four films. First is the romantic drama Definitely, Maybe with Ryan Reynolds, the sci-fi actioner Jumper, the family friendly fantasy The Spiderwick Chronicles, and the dance sequel Step Up 2: The Streets.

Two movies dropped off the top ten this week: Untraceable (11) and Cloverfield (12).

This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
1NFool's Gold$21,589,295$21,589,2951
2NWelcome Home Roscoe Jenkins$16,207,730$16,207,7301
31Hannah Montana$10,295,922$53,177,5682
42The Eye$6,528,301$21,418,9822
56Juno$5,601,149$117,506,10710
6327 Dresses$5,409,671$65,078,4614
77The Bucket List$5,277,433$74,995,4467
85Rambo$4,482,012$36,876,4903
94Meet the Spartans$4,110,561$33,950,8503
1010There Will Be Blood$3,978,322$26,687,6057

Box Office Predictions Recap
Well, I guess Hannah Montana stumbled in its second weekend, a bit more than I was expecting. Still, in the bigger picture of my expectations, I didn't have a terrible week. I only had one terrible overestimation. I had an idea that I overestimated the Vince Vaughn vanity show when I was one of three in the theater on opening night. For the most part, I was actually quite good. Yes, my placings were a bit off, but they weren't too bad.

Here is how the field matched up:

ActualPredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Fool's Gold$21,589,295$21 million
32Hannah Montana$10,295,922$18 million
23Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins$16,207,730$14 million
44The Eye$6,528,301$6.5 million
65

27 Dresses

$5,409,671$5.5 million
56Juno$5,601,149$4.5 million
87Rambo$4,482,012$4 million
248Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show$464,170$3.5 million
79The Bucket List$5,277,433$3 million
910Meet the Spartans$4,110,561$3 million

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