Box Office Update 7/27-7/29: The Simpsons Obliterates Expectations

This weekend saw The Simpsons make their long awaited debut on the big screen. All of that pent up big screen aspiration exploded in a lot of yellow as the fans flocked to lap it up. The film had one of the biggest openings of the year as it crossed the $74 million barrier. Who would have guessed? Not me, that's for certain. Fortunately, the film delivered the goods with more gags than you can shake a stick at, while still delivering a story that didn't make you feel like you were watching a stretched episode.

Three other films made their way to the top ten this week. First up is a remake of a German film called No Reservations (the original was called Mostly Martha). I have not seen the original, but this remake was a delightful cinematic experience. It delivered a pleasant time at the movies, with interesting characters that we follow through a new chapter in their unfolding lives. It does not mine any new ground, but it was nicely understated. It opened in fifth place, which is not bad considering the big draws in the lineup. However, it was a close fifth, as it narrowly knocked Transformers out of the top five by the slim margin of $60,000, yes it is a lot of money, but when we generally talk multimillions, not much at all.

The other two new releases landed at the south end of the list, and actually surprised me that they even made it to the list. First, in ninth place is the Lindsay Lohan thriller I Know Who Killed Me. It is a poor film that failed to hold water in its attempts to prove an intelligent mind twister. Coming in behind that in the anchor position was the Big Boi vehicle, Who's Your Caddy?. I didn't see this one, but considering the lack of advertising, I am surprised it made it.

Among the returning films, Ratatouille and Live Free or Die Hard fared the strongest at retaining their audiences. I am happy to see the Pixar film still plugging along, it is easily one of the best films of the summer and the year. It may not be the best performing of Pixar's catalog, this is still one of the best outings. On the other hand, who would have thought that a revival of the Die Hard franchise with an aging Bruce Willis back in the saddle would prove to be the biggest moneymaker of the series? Ah, who cares, the movie was a lot of fun.

On the other hand, Transformers continues to march towards $300 million, as it nears $285 million. It is only a matter of time. The rest of the returning films returned with decent holds. Next week they will face challenges from Matt Damon in The Bourne UltimatumAndy Samberg in Hot Rod, and Jason Lee as Underdog.

Four movies dropped off the top ten this week: License to Wed (12), Knocked Up (14), Evan Almighty (16), and 1408 (17).

This Week	Last Week	Title	Wknd Gross	Overall	Week in release
1	N	The Simpsons Movie	$74,036,787	$74,036,787	1
2	1	I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry	$19,132,965	$71,680,080	2
3	2	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	$17,733,085	$242,439,214	3
4	3	Hairspray	$15,899,890	$59,657,287	2
5	N	No Reservations	$11,704,357	$11,704,357	1
6	4	Transformers	$11,643,129	$284,677,134	4
7	5	Ratatouille	$7,455,594	$179,904,396	5
8	6	Live Free or Die Hard	$5,618,728	$125,396,389	5
9	N	I Know Who Killed Me	$3,506,291	$3,506,291	1
10	N	Who's Your Caddy?	$2,756,661	$2,756,661	1

Box Office Predictions Recap
Well, I almost got all of the placings correct. Sure, I mixed up 2 and 3, but who would have known that Sandler and James would outduel Harry Potter? Well, I guess most of you. Anyway, it was still a close battle between the two. My biggest surprise would probably have to be how low my guess was for The Simpsons Movie, honestly, I don't think anyone would have predicted an opening north of $70 million. I was off by more than $30 million! Of course, I knew my guess was in trouble when I saw the crowd on Friday when I saw it. Close behind that, I would say I was surprised that I Know Who Killed Me and Who's Your Caddy? made it to the top ten.

Anyway, here is how I picked the field:

Actual	Prediction	Title	Wknd Gross	Prediction
1	1	The Simpsons Movie	$74,036,787	$42 million
3	2	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	$17,733,085	$22 million
2	3	I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry	$19,132,965	$20 million
4	4	Hairspray	$15,899,890	$19 million
5	5	No Reservations	$11,704,357	$17.5 million
6	6	Transformers	$11,643,129	$12 million
7	7	Ratatouille	$7,455,594	$6 million
8	8	Live Free or Die Hard	$5,618,728	$4 million
17	9	1408	$1,139,669	$2 million
12	10	License to Wed	$1,287,411	$1.5 million